Winnipeg Sun Cover September 25, 2009

After a crazy week or so, when dubious radio announcers called out Manitoban NHL fans to stop, wait and listen for a March 4th TNSE press conference that did nothing for their credibility, we return to the situation as it stands after taking a collective breather from the many fan and media requests along the way.

In this instalment, we are considering what's left on the "To-Do" List, if in fact the Coyotes may be ported North back to its' past city. As one WestJet first officer announced upon landing several years ago, "Winnipeg, the past and future home of the Phoenix Coyotes" to a raucous response from the cabin, we concur that the situation has ripened even post-Bankruptcy court.

It is important to note that some or none of the following may have already been completed and not publicized. Potentially all have not yet occurred.

But at the end of the day, one would be OFFside not to conclude that very little stands between Manitoba's NHL aspirations and the reality of the failed Coyotes team.

The team makes it way back home, assuming a dozen things happen:

1) that IEH is nothing but a shadow or placeholder now for the NHL and is effectively dead in the desert,

2) that TNSE have their financials all in order, such as sales of other business interests, loan guarantees in place (if any are needed),

3) that any and all renovations for the MTSC have been agreed to between TNSE and the NHL for this summer or future summers. (Anything larger or longer timelines would become a potential deal-breaker with the short time to make a relocation, therefore they become moot should the team be on the way),

4) that TNSE has made an offer at the NHL's invitation and the NHL's BOG finds it favourable,

5) that the NHL BOG vote is a formality given the above agreements,

6) that the NHL ownership due diligence check is completed by now (for this or any other team),

7) that the NHL and TNSE have agreed in principle to a divisional realignment plan for the next season,

8) that the relocation is in time for September 2010 training camp in Winnipeg, with schedule changes as necessary,

9) that the Jets logo and all trademarks by sold to TNSE by the NHL for $1 (regardless even if the team may be called something different),

10) that the relocation fee paid by TNSE to the NHL is $1. (A relocation fee to move from Winnipeg to Phoenix was unlikely and if so, then the reverse relocation should be free),

11) that TNSE and the NHL agree that TNSE pay all interim team financing and all Coyote losses from either the closing date of the sale (or potentially an earlier date when the NHL BOG "looked favourably" at TNSE when TNSE presented their bid behind closed doors to the NHL and/or NHL BOG),

12) that the TNSE and NHL agree on minimal and non-binding requirements on season ticket equivalents sold, luxury box rental percentages sold and in-rink advertizing levels sold, with both parties agreeing to use these "as leverage on the Manitoban market" to ensure a wildly successful story for both parties to market accordingly. (Note: These conditions will have to be non-binding otherwise should any fail, the NHL would have to "eat" another year in the desert before finding a whole other relocation plan with or without Winnipeg as the destination.)

Longer shots include:

13) that the NHL Draft will resume its' spot in Winnipeg given the departure of the 1995 draft

14) that the NHL holds its' All Star Events in Winnipeg in the next 5 years

15) that certain staff be retained by the new ownership for 1 or more seasons either in their current capacity or as consultants.

16) that all clawbacks to any potential revenue sharing received by the team will be revoked for the first 5 years

If you have a few more to add to the list, deke the Matt Cooke Head shot and post it at the forum. www.mbmbforum.com

Chris
President, www.myNHLincludesWinnipeg.com
~ The Reality May Surprise You! Excite You! ~

Forget the latest rounds of rumours for a moment. Step back some and look at this chess match of NHL proportions.

As we the fans understand it, TNSE has been "involved" in chasing Atlanta Thrashers for relocation to Winnipeg. All the while, the NHL is probably thinking about Winnipeg as plan B for the Coyotes if IEH fails.

So there are potentially two teams linked to Winnipeg. This unfolds later in this blog.

Having leverage when negotiating is extremely important. All sides know this as a basic principle of business deal making.

Therefore, the NHL will, in its best interest, hammer out a plan B deal with TNSE (or another group for this or another city) long before IEH fails publicly. Should IEH fail and TNSE learns of this before cutting a deal with the NHL, then the NHL loses some clout when cutting the deal. Therefore, there is motive for the NHL to keep trotting out IEH even after learning that they have failed just to maintain that bargaining position with TNSE and/or other groups. (I suggest that IEH is at death's door already for this reason alone.)

This is why it is conceivable that the NHL would sign a deal or LOI with TNSE for the Coyotes to relocate to Winnipeg this summer all under the condition that IEH has "first right of refusal" until a certain date. Of course, this is assuming that the NHL first offers the team to Winnipeg and believes that our owners, fanbase, corporate base and rink are at least satisfactory for a team at a given minimum standard. (Consider the past few expansion phases and failures, any doubt about our market is less than current state NHL teams, especially these two teams.)

Also, in any regard, TNSE can't bargain too hard with the NHL for fear that the NHL will just sell the team to another city that caves in to the NHL's demands.

Hamilton does remain an option, so long as a guarantee of a new rink is built outside of all other teams’ territorial limits. My guess is the NHL may allow that for a few "temporary" seasons to get them out of this current mess. However, getting that commitment any time before the start of next season is unrealistic. The ownership question here is also a potential roadblock. If Ron Joyce does not step forward quickly, then the scramble to find owners just might make this city unrealistic if for no other reason that time constraints. No way will Gary Bettman's ego allow James Balsillie to get either team having gone through the mess in 2009.

With a guarantee of a new rink, Quebec City would then become another "quick relocation option", assuming ownership is ready, willing and able, which we believe is the case. Again, that rink guarantee seems highly unlikely to happen before September.

Houston could handle a rushed relocation over a summer, but does Les Alexander really want to own an NHL team any more? No public reports indicate that he would be open to this even without the rushed relocation scenario.

Beyond the competing cities offering TNSE some cause for concern is the NHL itself. TNSE also knows that when the NHL "first offers the team to Winnipeg" that Gary Bettman can also become a ruthless dealmaker. This means that Gary Bettman can easily say to Mark Chipman "look you've been bugging me for another team in Manitoba for years, here's your chance! Oh and by the way, if you don't take this team off our hands you can forget expansion and/or relocation to Winnipeg for as long as I'm Commissioner". This is the ultimate hardball negotiation that may face TNSE. This may have already occurred. Essentially a take it or leave it proposition for our NHL aspirations. However, if IEH fails and becomes public, the NHL may not be as comfortable making this type of ultimatum to Chipman and Thomson.

If TNSE has been dealing already with Atlanta, then the NHL knows very well what is going on. Bill Daly's recent "at the league level" quote all but admits such. Should the owners there want out, since they own the rink and all extra non-hockey revenues that go with it including luxury box revenues, it is all but impossible for the Thrashers to become tenants in that rink without access to all current revenues. Looking at it another way, if the current ownership could not make a go of the Thrashers why would any tenant-owner think different. Most importantly, why would any lender think different either? Therefore, the moment the ownership moves to sell the club, it is essentially impossible to keep it in Atlanta in that rink. Is there any other rink that is NHL suitable? That is doubtful. In addition, a new rink would only split existing non-hockey revenues between the Phillips Arena and a potential new rink. Therefore, in a weird way, by having started negotiations with the Thrasher owners, TNSE is essentially strengthening their position with the NHL in respect to acquiring the Coyotes. Of course, this is assuming the 7 year no-relocate clause has expired and assuming the ESPN and Al Strachan rumours are true that link TNSE to the Thrashers all the way back to June 2008. In fact, TNSE may have only bargained for the Thrashers just to increase the leverage needed when cutting a deal with the NHL for the Coyotes return home.

So to summarize so far:

Without IEH, the Coyotes become Lame Ducks and this would reduce NHL bargaining power to force deals on others including TNSE.

Once the owners of the Thrashers tell the NHL they want out, the Thrashers become Lame Ducks. Based on the market conditions and assuming they have failed at finding ownership to hold the team in place, the Thrashers not only become portable, they have no real ability to stay in Atlanta.

Moreover, since few cities are willing, ready and able to take a team over the summer, Winnipeg has positioned itself well on both fronts.

If both teams need to move before the start of next season, the NHL may have to decide which team they would prefer to see move to Winnipeg and not only allow it but endorse it. This would be the best-case scenario for TNSE to extract NHL concessions in the deal, such as which division the club will play in.

As much as this might be hard for supporters to hear, and assuming the NHL doesn’t call on Winnipeg to “save” the Coyotes this year, it may play to TNSE’s advantage to wait this out over more seasons until both the league and the failed clubs become even more desperate. However, it would be hard to believe the situations in some markets could get any worse when they are at perceived rock bottom now.

One other point to consider, having watched the whole Coyote mess unfold, one would be OFFside to underestimate the NHL.

This is especially true when your ownership group wants into their league, you can't "bargain too hard" for fear of future ripples that may affect you and your club. On the other side of the puck, it is just as clear that when existing owners go behind the NHL's back, the NHL won't lose sleep over throwing them under the bus as they did with a bankrupt Jerry Moyes. No doubt that the Atlanta Spirit group has taken a good long look at what happened to Moyes last summer.

Winnipeg remains a well positoned and prime relocation candidate. Let the pucks fall where they may!

Let us hear your thoughts over at the forum, www.mbmbforum.com

Chris
President, myNHLincludesWinnipeg.com
30,000+ Unique Monthly Visitors
~ The Reality May Surprise You! Excite You! ~

Photo Courtesy Winnipeg Free Press

Following a fellow supporter's suggestion, eyes turned on February 10th to the Winnipeg Free Press article "Talking to the boss" where Paul Wiecek interviewed Mark Chipman mostly about the AHL's Manitoba Moose. But Wiecek led off with two questions about the possible return of the NHL to Winnipeg.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/sports/hockey/moose/Talking-to-the-boss--84014237.html

Over the years following Mark Chipman direct quotes, live audio and video (most of which are already posted on www.myNHLincludesWinnipeg.com), he has portrayed an optimistic yet grounded message whenever he has had the chance to "wave Manitoba's flag".

One would be completely OFFside to find fault with Mark Chipman's public persona, past and present.

Yet Mark Chipman's tone and message changed in this article for the first time yours truly can recall. From his normally upbeat "Winnipeg may very well be able to support the NHL now" message to one replaced by this:

~~~
FP: Before we talk about your team, what did you think of the sale of the Tampa Bay Lightning for $170 million (last week)?

Chipman: I haven't followed it.

FP: OK, but does that $170-million sale price get us closer or further to an NHL team in Winnipeg?

Chipman: Honest to God, I just don't want to comment on anything that's happening right now. I don't know enough about the transaction so I'm better off not saying anything.
~~~

His admission that he hasn't put much thought into the Tampa sale and/or price may be true, but it smacks against his calculated and detailed planning throughout his last 14 years. He has met with two Canadian NHL teams to review their books to see if Winnipeg's re-entry will be successful. When asked in the past about the sale price of the Oilers, Wild and Predators, Mark Chipman usually commented in a glass-is-half-full tone for Manitoban NHL fans.

Either the bad news has finally sunk in or a deal is on, somewhere between tire-kicking and being totally completed.

"Honest to God, I just don't want to comment on anything that's happening right now." This one sentence from Mark Chipman, is a step change in his dealings with the media, going back to several years ago when he first started talking about the NHL and Winnipeg in the same sentence.

Based on this and nothing about rumours constantly flying around, I suggest that a "game-changer" has entered the situation for better or for worse. My bet is that nothing has recently quashed his NHL aspirations which leads to the obvious conclusion.

Because of the departure from his normal tone, yours truly had to temper first impression with the grace of a few days to ponder these quotes before minting another update to The OFFside blog.

Upon that further review, either Mark Chipman had the puck and nets taken home on him this week or he is entering Sudden Death Overtime on closing the provincial "deal of the century" as CJOB's Bob Irving once called it.

Chris
President, myNHLincludesWinnipeg.com
~ The Reality May Surprise You! Excite You! ~
30,000+ Unique Monthly Visitors

Courtesy MTScentre.ca

Whenever the NHL has expanded in the past few expansion phases, there was a requirement for the new team to reach 12,000 season ticket equivalents, a certain threshold of advertizing dollars sold and a certain threshold of luxury boxes committed to, by a given deadline.

For Winnipeg, that deadline may be much shorter than preferred for both the NHL and the club in question, since there may be a rush to move a team between seasons. And if the deadline is going to be a shorter window of opportunity, hopefully the requirements are also reduced somewhat to remain realistic.

Manitoban NHL fans would be OFFside if they believe that the NHL will announce it's return without any sort of "catches".

In fact if your listen to Mark Chipman back in September 24, 2008, he made this point very clear before the ownership group would jump in headfirst into an NHL team purchase:

http://www.manitobamythbusters.com/php/index.php?module=pagemaster&PAGE_user_op=view_page&PAGE_id=138

His reference to multiple season committments may only pertain to luxury box rentals, advertizing and club seats but there is an outside chance that they may want to extend that to regular season tickets and minipacks.

So the wisest of fans are clearing debt off credit cards in order to be ready for the unquestioned stampede to the box office when that announcement of the century is made. Those left without sufficient room, may be kicking themselves for years while they stay on the waiting list long after the team is carving the ice at 300 Portage Avenue.

Not only will owning your first season seats be an invigorating experience that you can bore your grandkids with over and over again, you'll also know that your personal committment was a piece of the puzzle that helped bring the NHL back.

And that knowledge, coupled with the very first playing of Van Halen's "Jump" ushering our team onto home ice, will be a Priceless moment that credit card companies cannot fathom.

If you take exception, lay it on the line over at the Forum. www.mbmbforum.com

Chris
President, myNHLincludesWinnipeg.com
30,000+ Unique Visitors Monthly
~ The Reality May Surprise You! Excite You! ~

Containing Grand Announcement Will Be Challenging

A rumour suggests that one Gary Bettman flew by private jet into Winnipeg two weeks ago only to be whisked away by limo from the tarmac. The rumour concludes that the NHL Commissioner stayed in Winnipeg for a total of 6 hours before departing.

Curiously no media reported on his arrival, departure or the nature of the visit. No press conference was held.

So one would be OFFside not to ask if a visitor of this rank could escape hockey-mad Winnipeg with nary a trace beyond rumours, two weeks removed?

Is this story plausible? It was suggested it was, considering that his arrival would be roughly around the time that the NHL leader was making press appearances in both Alberta NHL stops.

Conspiracy theorists are often lumped into the same category as the terminally insane. Some theories like Roswell, 911 and JFK will be with us as long as the internet and cockroaches crawl earth. But something related has baffled yours truly for a long time now.

With nothing but respect, I call it the "Darren Ford effect" for obvious pioneering in his work. To understand this "effect" ask yourself one question: "Just who would spill the beans of such sensitive information, knowing full well that possibly breaking this story publicly could rock the boat hard enough to lose the NHL's return?"

The media, by keeping the secret now, may be offered plum positions within the NHL club once arrived. Ditto Manitoba Moose and True North staffers. So while the glory may be very short-lived for the bean-spiller, there are many who would say nothing to be part of a much bigger and lucrative spot later. In the case of some believers, I know how badly they want the NHL to return and that alone is the greatest reward they can receive by keeping lips sealed.

However to maintain this "black curtain of silence", around the MTS Centre and True North Sports and Entertainment Ltd., would require alot of NHL fans and zero NHL haters that work for the media, TNSE, The Moose, a select number of hockey fans in the know and now of course air ground crew staff at the JAR (James A. Richardson) Airport. As time progress, more activity occurs to bring the NHL home. More activities require a wider net of supporters and zero haters as this secret trip to Winnipeg implies.

As one example of the silence-in-effect, debates over Al Strachan's early October "bean-spilling" on Hockey Night in Canada (if you missed it: Strachan reported that big Toronto money will buy and move the Thrashers to Winnipeg) have ranged from advancing the NHL return, to potentially killing it, with both sides agreeing that it was curious timing that Strachan was whisked out of that role soon after.

So while upholding the various pieces of the secret may be in some people's best interest, it seems like the odds are long much like trying to tie the game with the net empty being down by two goals, late in the third.

The last two pieces of the NHL puzzle, Ownership and the MTS Centre, have now been in place since November 2004. Years of building this NHL business plan and ownership profile have no doubt required alot of extremely quiet work on behalf of Mark Chipman and David Thomson. This is especially true with the topic gaining more and more national coverage, albeit from mostly outsider perspectives due to extremely low public profiles kept by both men. As the plan and time progresses the ability to keep the plan quiet gets less likely.

Once the deal is reached, the NHL board votes to accept both the ownership transfer and the relocation date and both the seasons of the Moose and the NHL team in question have wrapped up (to limit any disruption to ticket sales), there will be no reason for the silence to continue.

One of these springs or summers, the "black curtain" on the MTS Centre upper bowl will be removed for the last time.

Perhaps Gary Bettman will be publicly back in Winnipeg soon, as part of the "Grand Announcement" at the MTS Centre or even at Portage and Main a la Bobby Hull's signing. Bettman's visibility then would certainly "settle the score" with many Manitobans thinking that Gary Bettman taketh and giveth once more.

If you have your own conspiracy theory related to the NHL returning to Manitoba, dump it deep into the Forum before heading for a line change! www.mbmbforum.com

Chris
President, www.myNHLincludesWinnipeg.com
~ The Reality May Surprise You! Excite You! ~
30,000+ Unique Monthly Visitors