Forget the latest rounds of rumours for a moment. Step back some and look at this chess match of NHL proportions.

As we the fans understand it, TNSE has been "involved" in chasing Atlanta Thrashers for relocation to Winnipeg. All the while, the NHL is probably thinking about Winnipeg as plan B for the Coyotes if IEH fails.

So there are potentially two teams linked to Winnipeg. This unfolds later in this blog.

Having leverage when negotiating is extremely important. All sides know this as a basic principle of business deal making.

Therefore, the NHL will, in its best interest, hammer out a plan B deal with TNSE (or another group for this or another city) long before IEH fails publicly. Should IEH fail and TNSE learns of this before cutting a deal with the NHL, then the NHL loses some clout when cutting the deal. Therefore, there is motive for the NHL to keep trotting out IEH even after learning that they have failed just to maintain that bargaining position with TNSE and/or other groups. (I suggest that IEH is at death's door already for this reason alone.)

This is why it is conceivable that the NHL would sign a deal or LOI with TNSE for the Coyotes to relocate to Winnipeg this summer all under the condition that IEH has "first right of refusal" until a certain date. Of course, this is assuming that the NHL first offers the team to Winnipeg and believes that our owners, fanbase, corporate base and rink are at least satisfactory for a team at a given minimum standard. (Consider the past few expansion phases and failures, any doubt about our market is less than current state NHL teams, especially these two teams.)

Also, in any regard, TNSE can't bargain too hard with the NHL for fear that the NHL will just sell the team to another city that caves in to the NHL's demands.

Hamilton does remain an option, so long as a guarantee of a new rink is built outside of all other teams’ territorial limits. My guess is the NHL may allow that for a few "temporary" seasons to get them out of this current mess. However, getting that commitment any time before the start of next season is unrealistic. The ownership question here is also a potential roadblock. If Ron Joyce does not step forward quickly, then the scramble to find owners just might make this city unrealistic if for no other reason that time constraints. No way will Gary Bettman's ego allow James Balsillie to get either team having gone through the mess in 2009.

With a guarantee of a new rink, Quebec City would then become another "quick relocation option", assuming ownership is ready, willing and able, which we believe is the case. Again, that rink guarantee seems highly unlikely to happen before September.

Houston could handle a rushed relocation over a summer, but does Les Alexander really want to own an NHL team any more? No public reports indicate that he would be open to this even without the rushed relocation scenario.

Beyond the competing cities offering TNSE some cause for concern is the NHL itself. TNSE also knows that when the NHL "first offers the team to Winnipeg" that Gary Bettman can also become a ruthless dealmaker. This means that Gary Bettman can easily say to Mark Chipman "look you've been bugging me for another team in Manitoba for years, here's your chance! Oh and by the way, if you don't take this team off our hands you can forget expansion and/or relocation to Winnipeg for as long as I'm Commissioner". This is the ultimate hardball negotiation that may face TNSE. This may have already occurred. Essentially a take it or leave it proposition for our NHL aspirations. However, if IEH fails and becomes public, the NHL may not be as comfortable making this type of ultimatum to Chipman and Thomson.

If TNSE has been dealing already with Atlanta, then the NHL knows very well what is going on. Bill Daly's recent "at the league level" quote all but admits such. Should the owners there want out, since they own the rink and all extra non-hockey revenues that go with it including luxury box revenues, it is all but impossible for the Thrashers to become tenants in that rink without access to all current revenues. Looking at it another way, if the current ownership could not make a go of the Thrashers why would any tenant-owner think different. Most importantly, why would any lender think different either? Therefore, the moment the ownership moves to sell the club, it is essentially impossible to keep it in Atlanta in that rink. Is there any other rink that is NHL suitable? That is doubtful. In addition, a new rink would only split existing non-hockey revenues between the Phillips Arena and a potential new rink. Therefore, in a weird way, by having started negotiations with the Thrasher owners, TNSE is essentially strengthening their position with the NHL in respect to acquiring the Coyotes. Of course, this is assuming the 7 year no-relocate clause has expired and assuming the ESPN and Al Strachan rumours are true that link TNSE to the Thrashers all the way back to June 2008. In fact, TNSE may have only bargained for the Thrashers just to increase the leverage needed when cutting a deal with the NHL for the Coyotes return home.

So to summarize so far:

Without IEH, the Coyotes become Lame Ducks and this would reduce NHL bargaining power to force deals on others including TNSE.

Once the owners of the Thrashers tell the NHL they want out, the Thrashers become Lame Ducks. Based on the market conditions and assuming they have failed at finding ownership to hold the team in place, the Thrashers not only become portable, they have no real ability to stay in Atlanta.

Moreover, since few cities are willing, ready and able to take a team over the summer, Winnipeg has positioned itself well on both fronts.

If both teams need to move before the start of next season, the NHL may have to decide which team they would prefer to see move to Winnipeg and not only allow it but endorse it. This would be the best-case scenario for TNSE to extract NHL concessions in the deal, such as which division the club will play in.

As much as this might be hard for supporters to hear, and assuming the NHL doesn’t call on Winnipeg to “save” the Coyotes this year, it may play to TNSE’s advantage to wait this out over more seasons until both the league and the failed clubs become even more desperate. However, it would be hard to believe the situations in some markets could get any worse when they are at perceived rock bottom now.

One other point to consider, having watched the whole Coyote mess unfold, one would be OFFside to underestimate the NHL.

This is especially true when your ownership group wants into their league, you can't "bargain too hard" for fear of future ripples that may affect you and your club. On the other side of the puck, it is just as clear that when existing owners go behind the NHL's back, the NHL won't lose sleep over throwing them under the bus as they did with a bankrupt Jerry Moyes. No doubt that the Atlanta Spirit group has taken a good long look at what happened to Moyes last summer.

Winnipeg remains a well positoned and prime relocation candidate. Let the pucks fall where they may!

Let us hear your thoughts over at the forum, www.mbmbforum.com

Chris
President, myNHLincludesWinnipeg.com
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