Recently, debate has started over whether or not a team could relocate to Winnipeg in time for this coming September.

The discussion may be much broader than the Coyotes plight but we'll limit discussion to the one team for the sake of space.

Just my hunch because of the losses involved so far and ongoing, that the NHL won't leave the Coyotes in Phoenix with themselves as owners for beyond this 09/10 season. Beyond the large losses, it would show all that there are no owners in waiting for NHL teams. This public reality would seriously undermine that $200 million USD asking price for most teams.

That means either the NHL sells the Coyotes to someone like Ice Edge Holdings to keep the team there or they sell it to another owner with a blessing to move to whatever locale the new owner wants (so long as it doesn't infringe on any existing NHL territorial limits, Sorry Hamilton, Copps is your Achilles Heel).

One assumes that the NHL would normally have a firm timeframe for relocations between seasons. But after the endless number of deadlines last summer, the fans would be OFFside to consider them non-negotiable when bending the rules favours the Head Office.

Based on past relocations we may be nearing that point for some or past already the time when public announcements are made. The NHL will bend their own rules right up to the real firm deadline to set next year's schedule. If the fans remember right that absolute hard deadline is roughly in July given last year's bankruptcy hearings where this very issue was wrestled.

So if the NHL's back is right up against this wall, a hasty move to an existing rink could occur with a July announcement but not during the playoffs to protect the league as much as possible. (That worked well last spring/summer didn't it?)

I believe, as firmly as anything else in this whole determined cause, that if the NHL is left with no other recourse in June that they will sell the team back to Winnipeg with an anouncement post Stanley Cup finals (complete with gag order up to that time). Most likely before the draft and free agency on July 1st to help the new team best position itself, but it could drag on until that schedule-makers hard deadline in July.

So as time drags on with no news for the Coyotes, there is less wriggle room to move a team and set up shop in most locales. This is where a short time line works to Winnipeg's favour. An existing rink and promotions staff (yes any MTSC expansion issues could be reworked over the next season or three), an existing hockey administration in place with the AHL Moose (offices, box offices, advertizing and sales departments, scouts, management all in place with some relocated staff to stay on also).

Now this would not be easy, it would be incredibly tough for the TNSE folks to pull off in 2 to 3 months before the season starts, but few other relocation targets have their "pit crews" already engaged in this process. Hamilton, Hartford and Houston all have AHL teams. Quebec City has a QMJHL team. (Toronto's AHL team is owned by MLSE so they won't own two NHL teams. And the rink tenancy issues at ACC would be daunting.) Besides Winnipeg, that leaves only Houston with a state of the art rink.

The other cities need to commit to better rinks to catch up to Winnipeg and Houston. (Given that Copps needs extensive renos, Hamilton needs to build a new rink another 5 to 10 miles further from Toronto to function without the Leafs suing them until the NHL merges with the KHL.) And the trouble with Houston is the nearly silent ownership prospects. Several years ago, Les Alexander kicked Mario Lemieux's tires (or was that the other way around?) before Mario got his new rink in Pittsburgh. That has been it for news there and it might have all been a favour to help Mario gain leverage in his arena talks.

We summarized this information over a year ago expecting that when relocation does occur, that it may very well happen quickly:

http://www.manitobamythbusters.com/facts_figures/Market%20Analysis%20Quickest%20Reloc.pdf

So as we suggest, the longer the delay, the quicker the move has to happen leaving Winnipeg right at the top of the list for a quick relocation. It is ironic that of all teams, the Ex-Jets, could arrive back in town. For these reasons this is why Gary Bettman was being privately honest to his staff in his April 4, 2009 email about offering the team to Winnipeg first. As a courtesy call firstly, and as a matter of league logistics secondly. This suggests that the NHL does have "escape plans" already drawn up in an office in Manhatten complete with relocation target cities on "depth charts" much like general managers have filling out their rosters in a salary cap world.

Winnipeg now can tangibly save the league about $20 to $50 million, each season, by taking the Coyotes off the NHL's hands. That offers the Chipman-Thomson camp some ability to work out more favourable terms than say through a garden-variety expansion.

The only real debate for NHL BOGs is will the transfer of Phoenix to Winnipeg trigger Detroit's or Columbus' ever-present ambitions to move into the eastern conference. Status quo may rule the day with such tight timelines for the scheduler-makers. But the western divisions will probably see change if Winnipeg and not Houston gains the Coyotes. If Houston is the winner then no re-alignment needs to occur. Whereas Colorado moves to the Pacific and the 'Jets' move into the Northwest. This amounts to the rebirth of the Smythe Division with Minnesota providing a better overall fit than the LA Kings did in the 1980's and 1990's.

If your opinion differs, let us know at the forum! www.mbmbforum.com

Chris
President, myNHLincludesWinnipeg.com
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