Desert Dogs: The Straw On NHL Governors' Back

How many NHL teams are looking to be sold?
How many NHL teams are looking to move? Or both?

The public would be Offside to think that Phoenix is the only bird up for sale.

The NHL works hard so that the public only knows part of what is actually going on at any time. Yes Phoenix is for sale via bankruptcy. But out of the blue the Florida Panthers, its' adjacent properties and rink were sold and there wasn't a hint of it before it happened. There were rumblings that Lightning owner Davidson wanted to unload the team. So that sale was more public. The Nashville situation was public and the public watched (much like Phoenix) every move in the bidders positioning themselves for it. Yet we knew nothing about the Wild getting sold before it came down. Naegle said that he might consider selling in the next few years, but nothing was concrete and no media thought it was worth running with than one day's news. Edmonton was public only because Cal Nichols and Katz's entourage made it so. And of course, we know now that Balsillie spilled the beans about the sale of the Habs long before it would have been public info.

So as you can see only about half of the time does the public know which teams are for sale and who is actually chasing the purchase. The rest of the time we find out when the sale announcement is made.

So my hunch, which recent NHL history shows to be true, is that there are teams for sale at any given time.

However, when you consider the financial state of certain teams, there is no question the owner would sell it in a heartbeat if similar dollars were offered to them.

The real question is how many teams are for sale and would be "portable".

The NHL has insisted for the last few years that no teams are looking at relocation. However, as we all know the semantics for good league PR allows the truth to hide just beneath the surface of those NHL comments.


Most Likely To Move

The reality is that very few teams would be allowed to move that wouldn't upset the US national television footprint. One of the Florida teams but not both would be allowed to move. (The NHLPA agreed to this idea already.) The battle on-ice between the Lightning and Panthers could very well turn into one for survival in their city. Recent ownership changes will mean little to overall franchise fortunes and stability. But the weaker of the two could get their wings to fly to a new locale shortly. One of the California teams would be allowed to move. Considering the Sharks are a high revenue team it won't be them. The Kings in LA would be safe just due to their location and the bad press the NHL would get if it ever left the City of Angels. The Kings have to pull up their socks though, otherwise hockey just might go the same way as the NFL in LA. While the Ducks enjoy good times now, things haven't been all that rosy in their history. With an owner now facing federal prison, a change in ownership will be coming soon. Thus a relocation wouldn't be out of the question but other ownerships should be found to keep the team playing in the Pond. In the New York area, even Gary Bettman was asked aloud whether it is right to have 3 teams each vying for attention in one market. As one goes up in the standings, it hurts the finances of the other. Now consider the Rangers are one of the wealthiest teams in the entire league, centered by the NHL head office, it is the flagship (with apologies to Toronto Maple Leafs fans). New Jersey has opened a new rink in Newark so its’ future seems more secure that that of the Islanders, who are playing in an arena, more suitable as an NHL museum with loads of mothballs than that of one of the league’s storied franchises. While the Devils aren’t financially sound, it is the Islanders that are left looking in due to the arena grudge match and over a decade of on-ice performance that finally led to Mike Milbury’s departure from the general manager’s seat. Drafted first overall John Tavares offers real hope that the Islanders fortunes follow that of the recent Capitals.

Beyond the mess in Phoenix, and those previously mentioned in Florida, all signs point to similar sized headaches for the NHL in Nashville, Carolina, Long Island and Atlanta. This has been unaffectionately called the “NHL domino effect” by hundreds of hockey writers and bloggers. It is these 7 cities most often mentioned for relocation, most for very good reasons and one included not because of a lack of fanbase like the other 6 but due to an existing arena built just after the Mayflower landed.

To see a review of which teams are most seriously in trouble:
http://www.manitobamythbusters.com/php/index.php?module=pagemaster&PAGE_user_op=view_page&PAGE_id=79&MMN_position=110:101

The Canadian teams are in the most secure category along with the Wild, Rangers, Bruins and Blackhawks. Detroit won't be going anywhere with the Illitch family in control, even if the Motor City becomes rusty. Washington has rebounded both on and off the balance sheet mainly due to the entrance of its' flashy superstar, Alex Ovechkin.

Other northeastern teams are in that same category. The Penguins have turned things around as quickly and dramatically, both on and off the balance sheet, for any team in any pro sports league. The new arena will only boost its' success. The rivals in Philadelphia are also part of the NHL's backbone. Up until the owner of the Dallas Stars, Tom Hicks, ran into problems with bank loans, this team has also been very secure. It might be that ownership changes, but it would be truth-stretching to suggest that Dallas won't have NHL hockey any time soon. Unless Colorado implodes financially for the next few seasons, as they did on the ice this past season, there is no way this team is moving.

Those teams on the bubble are in St.Louis, Buffalo and Columbus. They are in a position slightly better or worse than where Washington sat just a few short years ago. The local economy in Buffalo threatens all its’ pro sports teams. It may be that fans there rally to keep the Bills away from Toronto and have little left in the tank for the Sabres. However, a superstar may turn that tide as it did in Pittsburg among other places. St. Louis hit rock bottom and is now coming up the other side. Repeated bad on-ice performances led to severe financial concerns in several different decades. The Blues have had a bit of a checkered history with threats of a move to Saskatoon in the 1980’s still fresh to a lot of fans. Columbus should have been a model expansion locale. However the constant sellouts were eroded with years of poor development of players and teams. It cost Doug MacLean his job as general manager. It will cost the NHL a city if recent success isn’t followed up with several playoff appearances.

The Coyote Effect On NHL Governors

My guess is that the NHL board of governors will allow freer movement of 7 "lost teams" should the NHL get stuck running the Coyotes for another year and on the NHL's pocketbook. Some governors will balk at Gary Bettman’s suggestion that the next team could stay where it is, if and when he finds suitable new ownership for it. This at a time when board of governors will potentially pay twice to hold the Coyotes in Phoenix: once as NHL, via the 30 teams, to prop up a financially unworkable team and a second time handing out cash as their own team pays out revenue sharing to also keep the Coyotes on artificial respiration. I can’t imagine that a majority of governors would have any motivation not to let the next domino fall and relocate quickly and easily to avoid this nasty PR and even nastier business. The governors may jump at the offer to relocate that second “financial fire” especially if that relocation market is sound, is not on the NHL’s target list for expansion and offers no territorial right issues.

Clearly the difference between Winnipeg and Hamilton favour Winnipeg for relocation. Winnipeg doesn’t offer the NHL the same expansion feeding frenzy that Ontario offers. So relocating to Winnipeg doesn’t spoil future expansion windfalls. Winnipeg doesn’t tread on any toes of existing NHL territories. Winnipeg would be the only NHL team from Calgary to Toronto to Minneapolis-St.Paul. Hamiltonians can support Toronto, Buffalo and Detroit all in less distance than Winnipeggers can reach the Twin Cities. And while both arenas may be viewed as less than spectacular, it is clear that a 5 year old building with modern amenities is favoured over Hamilton’s arena that is 24 years old and lacks those same amenities. Quebec City shares rink issues with Hamilton but doesn’t invade any NHL territory. Should “The Old City” solidify plans for a new rink, it would leap frog at least Hamilton in the pecking order, assuming all had ownership that was welcomed by the NHL.

To see an in-depth analysis and ranking of cities best suited for the NHL:
http://www.manitobamythbusters.com/php/index.php?module=pagemaster&PAGE_user_op=view_page&PAGE_id=74&MMN_position=115:115

So Phoenix offers us a glance into the murkier side NHL business. But it is just the first of 7 NHL teams, equivalent to more than one division, that will probably seriously consider Winnipeg as a relocation destination, with or without a sale and transfer of ownership. The trouble is that this may have already occurred, or is currently in the process and we just haven’t heard. Yet!

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Chris
Chair, Manitoba Mythbusters
www.ManitobaMythbusters.com
www.myNHLincludesWinnipeg.com

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