With talk that 100% of the Bell Centre and 80% of the Montreal Canadiens will be up for sale, supporters for the NHL's return to Manitoba have taken notice as another price will set the market for future team transactions.

One would be Offside in thinking this sale will have no impact beyond the Canadiens and their rink within Montreal.

While many transactions ocurred just prior to the lockout, they are for significantly less than post-lockout team sales. It is not clear if these will have any bearing on future sales or not.

However, from the recent past post lockout, a few transactions have occurred. Craig Leipold sold the Nashville Predators sold for $193 million plus their assumption of debt, while in less than 30 days he then turned around and bought the Minnesota Wild for $250 million and any related debt. Later, the Edmonton Oilers sold to Rexall Pharmacy owner Darryl Katz for $200 million plus the assumption of debt rumoured to be around $35 million. And who could have forgotten Jim Balsillie? He apparently had agreed to buy the Penguins for $175 million as well as the Predators for $238 million but both deals fell apart so considering them may not be appropriate.

With the other top 3 teams, Toronto and New York Rangers, not up for sale anytime soon, this Habs sale will set the high water mark for NHL franchise values for years to come.

So what does this mean for the return of the NHL to Winnipeg?

If say the Habs and rink sell for $500 million and the cost to replace the rink would be $350 million (remember the Bell Centre is one of the busiest centers in the world and holds over 21,000 seats and a ton of luxury boxes), then NHL fans in Winnipeg would have reason to be optimistic as the team portion of the total value would be $200 million or lower. And for the 3rd biggest NHL team, that would be a relative steal for the purchaser. Thus a team say in Atlanta or Tampa couldn't be worth more than what the Habs team sold for, even if it sold to Winnipeg interests in the next year or two. The dragging economy could be used as one reason why those past team sale values have fallen. Other reasons include the fear of more labour unrest just a short 3 years away.

Forbes magazine, which does not have the official financials to base their claims on, think that the Habs are worth around $330 million itself. The building would be in addition to it.

On the flipside if the team is sold for $300 million plus you can bet this holds franchise value at $200 million minimum for teams in Nashville and Edmonton or elsewhere. It would be yet another confirmation that teams are "worth" $200 million wherever they are located.

So while NHL hopefuls in Manitoba are watching closely to the Habs sale price, you can be sure that owners of troubled teams are watching even closer. This Habs sale may add or cut tens of millions from their future asking price. You can be sure of one thing, while George Gillette has be a good owner, he owes nothing to Gary Bettman. So Gillette's self interest alone is what will drive the eventual sale price. And Gary Bettman has self-interest to be involved in the fixing of the price, since so many other owners who are also Mr. Bettman's bosses have much riding on this outcome. Too bad for Gary Bettman that Mr. Gillette didn't sell a year ago when as Stephen Brunt reports, the world was so much more rosy and finding financing was easy compared to today. But postponing that decision is most definitely a good timing for Manitoba NHL fans.

If at the same time, Mr. Gillette has banks calling in his debts, NHL fans in Manitoba may have even more reason to cheer, just as other owners in much worse NHL financial shape may be forced to liquidate their assets to appease bankers.

The consolation prize for those groups losing out on purchasing the Habs are the fixer-uppers that could be relocated to Winnipeg, Hamilton and Quebec City. At more than $100 million less expensive, it's just a thought!

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Chris
Chair, Manitoba Mythbusters
www.ManitobaMythbusters.com
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