The Offside Blog has learned that a Quebec City group is talking about a new arena to replace the aged Colisee. About 5 people are making the trek to rinks in Montreal, Winnipeg, Denver and others to talk about each city’s rink and how it serves their needs. Their hope is to learn how to apply that knowledge back to Quebec City's own needs.

While the Quebec City concept includes a 20,000 seat arena, it does seem that the concept is still very much preliminary and open to change. Dialogue between the folks at the MTS Centre got those from Quebec thinking about seating capacity and market scarcity concerns. True North Sports and Entertainment officials revealed their thoughts about arena seating strategies. True North explained that the last couple of thousand seats are the most expensive to build, sell for the least money for each event and go most often unsold when events do not sellout. Should NHL seats go unsold, there is not as much urgency for fans to buy season tickets. However with near constant sellouts season ticket holders and concert goers rush to buy tickets. NHL Season tickets then have strong value. The Quebec group was quoted as taking these points to heart and potentially dropping 2,000 or more seats from their plan. Clearly bigger isn’t better as those larger, half empty rinks and NHL ticket promos in the US can atest. So as of yet no arena plan is finalized, much less the firm financial commitments to construct. But it is positive for Nordiques fans that Quebec City has launched this recent effort.

Let’s move on to the required capital for a new rink. It looks like their plan is to pre-sell seats and boxes to raise about $50 million then proceed to levels of government to build a $300 million new rink. $50 million is a very steep amount to raise through rink pre-selling. Also, by diverting these dollars away from sustaining a future NHL team and reallocating it over to the build cost of the arena, it could later put restrictions on NHL team finances. Not exactly putting your best foot forward to the NHL brass should that be the case. It is not clear in any of the past news reports where that other $250 million is to come from. Presumably the governments would be involved, but private enterprise will have to do more that just a 17% investment ($50 of $300 million) to get their new rink and control it too. Without a larger private share, it is hard to believe this will move forward without a huge private sector contribution yet to come forward.

And let's be blunt here, there's still no talk of an ownership group. Maybe they are waiting in the wings for the rink to come first as one quote suggested? But wouldn't the rink owner necessarily have to also own the team to be able to gain the non-hockey related revenues? This singular point of ownership is the best way to sustain an NHL team long term unless you have a rich hockey sugar-daddy in waiting. Maybe the Quebec City ownership has learned from mistakes of Jim Balsillie? A quiet, respectful approach to the old boys club of the NHL is the best way to get your foot in the clubhouse door.

The timing for all of this is curious any way you slice it. With the economic slow down, banks are tightening lending restrictions and governments are less likely to invest in larger scale projects. Last year’s 400th anniversary would have been the most logical time to announce such a bold move. Also when considering Quebec City there are several other groups looking for public funds, such as those looking to secure a football stadium for a future CFL team. Cash for a $300 million rink in Quebec City was hard to find when the economy was flush but now it is a much tougher bet. What also has changed in Canada is the perception that the NHL has righted itself to a large degree and that failing franchises may welcome a move into a solid hockey market like Winnipeg or Quebec City. If voters are in big enough numbers, look for the governments to race to the aid of the new arena plan in hopes of beating the other levels of government to the nationalist glory. I’m not saying it’s right or wrong, but that political factor can’t be overstated when provincial and federal governments have nationalistic overtures, be they from Canada or Quebec.

While a Quebec City group kicks the tires of rinks and presses their faces up against the glass of several NHL teams, those NHL fans in their fine city should understand what Manitobans have learned the hard way: Talk about building a rink could last years longer than they expected.

Anyone expecting a new arena quickly in these uncertain times would be Offside.

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Chris
Chair, Manitoba Mythbusters
www.ManitobaMythbusters.com
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