This Season Isn't So Safe After All Jan 15, 2008

Most media report or regurgitate the NHL message that if things should go awry, it will be next year not the current season since most revenues have been committed to for this full season.

I beg to differ based solely on a very quick review of the incoming revenue streams for teams.

For not investigating the story further, this time it's the media, making their living off the NHL, that is Offside.

Knowing that game ticket cash is the single biggest revenue stream and also knowing that alot of teams have few (and getting fewer) season ticket holders, this is still a huge concern. After all, how far in advance do you buy your game tickets? If it's a special game or against a great rival you might buy it at the start of the season or maybe by now. But most single game tickets are bought in the same month they are consumed. With few season ticket holders, this revenue stream is hardly a lock for the full season, other than in the most prosperous NHL markets. Fewer minipacks and group buys are moved with the economic downturn. Remember unlike the other 3 big league sports, anywhere between 70 to 75% of all NHL team revenue comes in the form of ticket sales.

Parking and concessions revenues obviously flow from ticket sales. As would in-game merchandize, restaurant and lounge sales.

Next are the suite revenues. These should be fairly safe as most have multi-year commitments. But should companies fold themselves over the course of the season, so will the regular incoming payments for those boxes. If the former "TSX 1", the one time darling of the stock market, Nortel Networks, can go under, so will many more this year and next!

In-game advertizing is another hot spot. Many teams fill these spots before the season even starts. Other teams fight the good fight to do likewise throughout the entire year. This year may prove even more a harder sell without ad rate discounts similar to ticket promos that are so common around the league.

Up next, league shared pool of merchandize sales and logo use. While people have less disposable income to throw around in tougher times, the sales of jerseys, programs, shirts and caps all will suffer this year, right now and next year.

Yes radio and TV money are committed for at least this season. One bright spot lost in a sea of darkness. Hard to imagine: the NHL finding a better US TV deal than the current one with Versus with advertizing dollars being reigned in across North America. Unfortunately, the NHL should have negotiatied with ESPN when times were good and when ESPN was open to the discussions. Now the NHL has little bargaining power to improve the most troublesome revenue stream this side of gate receipts.

So with most expenses all but locked in place to run a team, and as shown, few revenue stream are likewise, the media needs to take a closer look. They might find that collectible buyers may not only be buying Phoenix Coyote merchandize but several other teams that are also "lost in the desert".

If you want your say, set the record straight in the newly released Manitoba Mythbusters Forum.

http://manitobamythbusters.com/forum

Chris
Chair, Manitoba Mythbusters
www.ManitobaMythbusters.com
~ The Reality May Excite You! ~