Recently it was suggested that with economic hard times upon the world market and the NHL, expansion is all but dead for the next few years or at least until the world rights itself economically.

Normal business acumen would say this is a fairly safe bet. But business sense in the NHL has been “Offside” with economics for quite some time now. This is the NHL and business dealings have been questionable from Boots’ entrance in Nashville going right back to when Bruce Norris had effective control of most of the Original Six south of the border.

If during this recession, Las Vegas’ Bruckheimer or Kitchener’s Balsillie or Winnipeg’s Chipman-led group throws $200 Million at the NHL, don't be surprised that the league will jump at the chance to expand by 2 or even one team, even though scheduling would become messy with an odd number of teams.

(Sidebar: Other than Houston's Les Alexander and an inevitable "Second Toronto team" ownership group, are there any other potential NHL owners that are note-worthy? This may be the ultimate limiting factor to NHL expansion.)

As history shows, the NHL has never had any will power to stop itself from the instant gratification that these new expansion monies bring them.

[b]In fact, you could make the case, that when expansion is least likely in the long term interests of the league, it usually happens then.[/b]

After all, expansion to Ottawa and Tampa occurred in '91 when some teams were already having trouble. That was relative stability in 1991 compared to when Miami and Anaheim dropped into the NHL in '93. The CBA should have been re-opened and completely re-written in ‘94 as the NHL was already headed in serious trouble. The NHL added Nashville then expanded to Minnesota and Columbus in 2000 even when many teams were suffering worse than ever and 3 relocations just occurred. Quebec, Winnipeg and Hartford in back to back to back seasons pulled up tent pegs. Goodbye WHA-remnants! The last one, Edmonton, was as nervous as a death row inmate. Remember Houston's Les Alexander's push to buy the Oil? The Oilers were saved at the last hour by locals. Even Calgary ran ads that compared their status as "endangered species" along side Jet and Nordique logos with the caption "extinct species" under them. So teams were just hanging on by the skin of their teeth. Yet the NHL expanded again and again to places like Atlanta and relocated to places like Phoenix.

The difference now compared to the last 20 years is that bankers aren't nearly as likely to lend for either an expansion or relocated team. Even less likely to lend for a tangible asset like an arena due to real estate upheaval. Witness the recent sale of the Lightning to see how banks are tightening the flow of funds. The deal almost didn’t happen. And those future deals that do happen will be at a significant extra cost to hedge against this new risk.

So cities with an ownership group in place with a suitable arena already built and waiting are the obvious front-runners for both expansion and relocation. Hello Winnipeg, Houston! Kansas City may be there too, if they have an ownership group in place. Unless your name ends in Balsillie (who apparently has more money than God has Sundays), you can’t buy a team and build a rink out of your pocket change.

To sum up, the marketplace, not the NHL, may hold back expansion and limit relocation options in at least the next 3 years. Why three years? Economics will hold back any expansion announcement for at least a year as only a bit of smoke is starting to rise from the future expansion story in Toronto and elsewhere. Add another 2 years for a team to start playing.

Coincidentally, that takes us to 2011 for the next NHL windfall to occur. And again, this next windfall has nothing to do with a national US TV contract, as a downturned economy paints an even dimmer prospect of the NHL reaching that financial mecca.

Its' still very curious about Boot's secret powerpoint presentation prospectus, where it indicates two things. That Nashville's "portability" has better value than in its' current location. No real surprise news there. But the tidbit that most media outlets never picked up on was a significant expansion revenue was listed for the 2011 season. Boots had backdoor dealings with AEG and Craig Leipold so it is very conceivable that they let this expansion cat of the bag, never suspecting that Boots would actually put it to print and distribute it.

Maybe the sparks of that future expansion story ends in 2011 after all? And how many more relocations take place before then?

And if expansion happens during this recession, which could be a long one, just remember that history shows us how the NHL works and big league hockey is a (weird) business like no other. As they say in show business, timing is everything!

If you think I’m Offside, please take the soapbox and give us your feedback!

Chris