Spin Doctoring to Hit High Gear in Glendale

McGuire, a strong supporter of the ROTJ for years now, touched on the topic of Coyote spin doctoring this week and raised some excellent points. "If TNSE...is the (Coyotes) mystery buyer, you won't be seeing them pull the team out Glendale for this year". McGuire further adds, "it is possible that it is TNSE but they will run the team down there for the year any losses OVER 25 mil I believe would be shared between them and the NHL as part of the deal to buy now. But I dont think its them anyway, because I still don't think there are any mystery buyers. It's an attempt to keep tickets getting sold."

Hard to argue with you McGuire! Ultimately money talks. So it is fairly clear to surmise that the "fix" is in until about mid April when Coyote ticket sales finally run due course. Any rumours of saviours from now until then are nearly 100% pure fabrications based on the poor business plan that awaits any owner in Arizona. The spin doctors at the NHL and for the COG will be at work to minimize club losses throughout the season because both have a vested interest to prop up any hope to prey upon local fan wallets.

However, if truly bad news breaks for keeping the team in Glendale before the end of the regular season then that is closer to the truth. Because in this case, the truth would hurt all current stakeholders of the Coyotes.

One would be OFFside to think different!

And unless TNSE has agreed to pick up the tab for the club's losses, don't expect even a TNSE purchase announcement before nearing the end of the upcoming 2010-2011 season. As much as Manitobans would love to expect the New Years Eve Party Of The Century, it is doubtful the announcement will occur until a huge majority of Coyote home games are in the rear view mirror, sometime in mid to late March at the earliest.

Now that still could mean that TNSE signs the papers "on the down-low" at the end of 2010, and has plenty of time to revv up the Jet engines in time for Fall 2011 back in Manitoba including the porting of the AHL Moose to their choice of Thunder Bay, Fargo or even rumoured Saskatoon. This would also allow Glendale off the hook in part or in whole for club losses, allow the NHL to show their good faith efforts have run out of options after 2 years work and keep Goldwater silent throughout.

So in fact, if the will to continue to look for ownership to keep the team in Glendale finally dies, and it will after 2 years and counting, then all parties, the COG, the NHL and by their extension TNSE, all of them have an incentive to keep this quiet from now until next March or April.

The rest is pure marketing and window dressing to keep bringing out 10,000 fans a game at $25 a seat, all for the next 7 plus months. Just don't expect many costly promos, as the team's budget will be "revamped" once December 31st is reached.

Stay tuned, as 1995-96 showed us that the last few loops of the wild ride occur right before the end of the ride. I'm just glad I'm watching from afar and not actually on the roller-coaster 14 years later.

Have your say on our forum!

Chris
President, www.myNHLincludesWinnipeg.com
Over 30,000 Unique Visitors Monthly

~ The Reality May Surprise You! Excite You! ~

Line in the Sand Crossed in Arizona
Race to Find Local Buyer Entering Sudden Death Overtime

With Gary Bettman recently confirming that NHL headquarters has received that bonafide offer from the Winnipeg ownership group, it may be the words that paint the NHL Commissioner into a very tight corner.

By publicly declaring the principals in the Winnipeg ownership group along with the recent "$25 million insurance" deal with the City of Glendale in which the deal testifies that the NHL has received an offer north of $165 million, the NHL now faces a very difficult balancing act.

Given the NHL's strong interest to keep intact the Southern Experiment, and their multiple efforts to "sell" the team to Jerry Reinsdorf once even before the team went into bankruptcy, it is clear in this current soap opera that their preferred team locale is the present one.

One would be OFFside to think that the NHL wants to lose the first tent peg in the southern strategy.

However, by announcing a legitimate offer for $165 million or better to another would-be owner, the NHL now cannot publicly reduce the team sale price to hold it within Arizona below that value.

To do so, would risk a huge PR storm across Canada as proof positive that the NHL would rather take a substantial Leipold-style haircut than port the team to Canada. Also consider Bettman ascertions that the NHL BOG would never lose money on the bankruptcy bailout, currently sitting at $140 purchase price, $25 to $30 in losses this past season, plus whatever the team will lose above the $25 million circus net that Glengale has offered the league. That's a total of $165 to $170 million currently. Potentially reaching $200 million by the playoffs. Thus the NHL Commissioner must pull down this sort of cash not to be wearing mud with the Board of Governors meeting around mid-December 2010.

Thus, by Bettman's own words, Reinsdorf or another well-heeled prospective owner must show the NHL this full amount to gain the team. (Aside: Does anyone any longer think that IEH have credibility left to cover this long term shaky bet?)

Knowing that Gary Bettman is always several moves ahead of the situation, the natural question is to ask "why make those statements in the first place if you knew they could harm your options later?" It is not hard to find reason. Bettman may have told Glendale that end of May 2010 was his line in the sand for the franchise. Ratching up the pressure on Glendale, the NHL may have candidly told them about the offer to leave town for Manitoba. So that if no lease deal and no owner steps forward by that day, the NHL would be taking the TNSE offer and allowing Manitoba's re-entry into the NHL. Further, should Glendale wish to extend this deadline it would be solely on Glendale's dime for the coming season. This is only fair since the previous season was solely on the NHL's dime. $25 million was roughly lost by the NHL last year so it is a natural figure to use for the next season to be fair to both the NHL and Glendale.

But why make public statements about TNSE and their offer if a private conversation with Glendale would suffice to scare the city into action? It is not outside the realm of reason that the NHL is sending a final "warning shot" across Glendale to say that they really mean December 31, 2010 as a final deadline and not one day later. It is also a way to mobilize possible last-chance local ownership groups to step into the faceoff circle. Additionally, the media and hockey fans are softened to the idea of Winnipeg's return within the next year. Most importantly, it shows that with TNSE by standing by the NHL's statements, it will no doubt be rewarded if not with the Coyotes by another soon-to-be-had later "option to purchase/expand" with the NHL BOG.

The NHL has a strong history of this sort of "righting wrongs". Just look at how Norm Green wanted to port the Stars from Minnesota to Anaheim's new rink, only to have an expansion team dropped there first. Green was given the option to move his club within 12 months to any city within the US as "compensation" for "losing" his new locale in Anaheim. His choice: Dallas, Texas.

So in the end, Gary Bettman's words offer insight into where Winnipeg sits in the NHL's collective mindset. However, this further analysis into why the statements were made, offer even more insight as to just how close the NHL is done with Arizona. And for Manitoban NHL fans, seeing how TNSE and their offer was received by the NHL BOG and the media offered a glimpse into future open-armed acceptance. Most importantly, seeing how TNSE allowed themselves to be "useful" to the NHL, also offers us a unique perspective of how gaining access to the "ultimate hockey private clubhouse" is done successfully.

We may have been very close in May 2010. We may be very close still to being a part of the world's best sport played by the best hockey players in the world!

Skate down to the forum and have your say on the matter!

Chris
President, www.myNHLincludesWinnipeg.com
~ The Reality May Surprise You! Excite You! ~
30,000+ Unique Monthly Visitors

His NHL Includes Winnipeg
2010 State of the League Address: Turning Point For Manitoban NHL Fans

Before the Stanley Cup final series begins NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman traditionally holds court with the media in his State of the League address. Over the past number of years, Gary Bettman has dropped Winnipeg’s name. So often in fact, that yours truly opined days earlier to several fans that they should ensure they watch or listen to Gary Bettman on May 28, 2010.

Read the address and question & answer session here: http://slapshot.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/05/29/commissioner-gary-bettmans-state-of-the-n-h-l-news-conference/

What in fact was offered was the usual litany of issues the NHL faces. Of course, Bettman surely knew that the post-address media scrum would be calling for yet another Coyotes’ update. In the surprise of the year, Bettman admitted that should the Coyotes be forced to move, the NHL would move it back to Winnipeg. To further emphasize his point, Bettman publicly named the prospective Winnipeg ownership group as Mark Chipman and David Thomson. Bettman went on to say, “the interest is clear and bona fide, it's gratifying. The process by which they've been engaged with us is as good a process as they could be involved in."

Bettman downplayed any second team for the Greater Toronto Area, while opting for a return to Winnipeg and Quebec City first. "I'd like to try and fix something that I wish might not have happened in the first place," Bettman said, referring to the loss of the Jets and Nordiques respectively. "Not unlike what we did in Minnesota."

The key Bettman quote was that if the City of Glendale failed to agree to cover a substantial portion of the Coyotes’ potential losses for the upcoming season, the NHL had a solid backup plan. "We would have been forced to move it, there has been a lot of speculation about Winnipeg. Winnipeg did make a bonafide offer, but we never concluded a deal."

“Winnipeg did make a bonafide offer.” Let that sink in for a moment . . .

Synomyns for “bona fide” include actual, authentic, authoritative, card-carrying, credible, for real, genuine, good-faith, honest, kosher, legitimate, natural, official, original, pure, real, rightful, straight, true, true to life, unquestionable, valid, veritable, with good faith.

Gary Bettman usually speaks using qualifiers that allows him to later side-step his own words. After two months of getting past the excitement of hearing such statements from the top of the NHL, we have found no way to interpret this statement with blind or implied qualifiers. To suggest that Winnipeg made a bona fide offer means not only that the offer itself was for real, but all the aspects of housing a franchise within the MTS Centre are either no longer roadblocks in the NHL’s mindset or they never were roadblocks in the first place.

In effect, these six words from Gary Bettman has offered the ultimate mythbusting tool on behalf of Winnipeg’s return to the NHL. From 1996 until the MTS Centre opened in November 2004, we dare not even dream that this endorsement take place in fear of opening old wounds. And since 2005’s salary cap and revenue sharing program was ushered in, we dared to dream for such a day. Just a week before the speech, no one could ever predict that the NHL would effectively welcome Winnipeg’s return so publicly on such a large stage before the Finals begin.

On May 28, 2010, Manitoba’s return to the NHL officially changed from “if” to “when”. Only the current owners of the Manitoba Moose, Atlanta Thrashers and Phoenix Coyotes know how long it will be until we hear the Guess Who’s “Back to Bannatyne!” When the news does finally break, Portage and Main will never be the same!

Send us your feedback at The Hangar chatroom or the fan forum.

Chris
President, www.myNHLincludesWinnipeg.com
Over 30,000 unique monthly viewers
~ The Reality May Surprise You! Excite You! ~

PS> We can't wait for Conan's return to late night television almost as much as a certain NHL team's return! Glad to find another Hollywood celebrity to throw their support behind our cause!

The OFFside Blog: Start The Official Countdown!
On again, off again saga running out of time

The Arizona Republic reported Tuesday that the the IEH's own PR rep can't even clearly state if they are working on a lease deal or not. We finally see the COG at odds with IEH over whether they have met term obligations or not. Not to mention whether they are even working on a lease deal or not! For almost two years IEH and COG has similarly dithered.

See the article here: http://www.azcentral.com/community/glendale/articles/2010/07/26/20100726phoenix-coyotes-ice-edge-deal-trouble.html

I believe the end is near for IEH.

In 2010, we finally gained an end date for this club: December 31, 2010.

Start the official countdown! 157 days after today (Tuesday July 27th)

And remember that $25 million "deal" allows either party (COG or the NHL) to walk away if things change substantially for either. (See one of the last few clauses of the deal.)

You heard it here for first: Considering they may not have any ownership options left, the COG may very well likely exercise their right to back out of the $25 million lame duck season and allow the NHL to port the team THIS SUMMER realizing that truly the game is over.

So 157 days is the LONGEST we may wait. With September 1st soon approaching, nearly the start of training camp, and being only 36 days away, Winnipeg may indeed still celebrate "Homecoming 2010" long before New Years Eve.

If you can stand the heat in the Arizona desert kitchen, feel free to post your feedback at our forum!

Chris
President, www.myNHLincludesWinnipeg.com
~ The Reality May Surprise You! Excite You! ~

Edit: I correct myself! Stephen Brunt after reading this article first speculated on Team 1040am that COG may balk at the $25 million lame duck season and allow the team to leave this summer.

Leveraging A Better Deal At NHL's Poker Table Not For Faint of Heart

TSN this week broke the news that the NHL and the City of Glendale (COG) have reached a one year operating agreement including the bailout of losses provision, up to $25 million. The Globe & Mail added commentary to the story ( http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/winnipegs-hopes-for-nhl-team-alive-once-again/article1578321/ ) as well as proving a copy of the deal itself found here:

http://beta.images.theglobeandmail.com/archive/00660/Glendaledocs_pdf_660002a.pdf

http://beta.images.theglobeandmail.com/archive/00660/Escrowdocs_pdf_660001a.pdf

Several local supporters have questioned if this deal kills chances for the Coyotes moving to Winnipeg for the fall of 2010. Most suggest that a clause relating to severability does allow the NHL to opt out of this latest agreement should the bailout provision be nixed by the court. This keeps the door slightly open for Winnipeg and 2010.

However, that doesn't address the timing of such a court ruling and the implications to the NHL and the Coyotes.

If the NHL keeps the team in Arizona past its own point of no return and the bailout is ruled invalid by the courts, the NHL has stuck its' neck out from really little to gain. NHL stakeholders would be OFFside to believe that the NHL would so easily and effectively paint itself into a corner of the Arizona desert.

The key question is what happens to this time-sensitive deal should GWI or any citizen decide to take this bailout deal to court? Specifically I refer to any effort to get a court injunction on this deal. In other words, the court may "hold up" bailout payments between the NHL and COG until the case is resolved one way or another. Now effectively the NHL goes into this next season WITHOUT the guarantee they seek.

The NHL is a cunning entity. If such an injunction is made, this deal with the NHL and COG may be off by mutual handshake agreement.

Considering the first payment is called for the 15 to 18th of the month of September, there is time between now and then where an injunction could "eliminate" this agreement under such a scenario.

Why would the NHL not sell the team before that point of no return and ensure that its' Board of Governors come away break-even? Just what does Phoenix offer, after 14 years of failure, with a rink miles out of the questionable/poor market you wish to build upon? Especially if the governments aren't allowed to prop the team up? A future in Glendale seems the least liekly outcome this year and any future one.

In summary, the NHL has no real upside waiting another year . . . unless the NHL is trying to give other cities time to get into the bidding war with TNSE and Winnipeg? This "auction" possibly allows the NHL to sell the team for a $140 million purchase price plus 2 full seasons of losses (up to $20 to $30 million per year) and maybe even tack on a relocation fee. Waiting another year to attract a buyer wanting to hold the team in Arizona isn't the likely reason, as the team has been for sale since 2008 and has received the most "for sale advertizing" exposure beyond any other pro team outside of the Montreal Expos. And we know they are long since gone from Montreal.

Waiting another year only makes sense if the NHL is trying to find leverage against TNSE's Mark Chipman and David Thomson. Maybe in the next few months Quebec City finally announces solid funding for its new rink. Ditto Hartford, Seattle and Hamilton (but only if 'Copps II Arena' sits another 6 miles away from Toronto) assuming that ownership in those locales are ready to make a binding pitch to the NHL.

Maybe by then the TNSE owners have already wrapped up the Atlanta Thrashers for relocation to 300 Portage Avenue, Winnipeg, Manitoba better known as the MTS Centre.

Spout off at the online forum. Vent your frustrations on the long and winding road that this has become!

Chris
President, www.myNHLincludesWinnipeg.com
~ The Reality May Surprise You! Excite You! ~
30,000 Unique Monthly Visitors and Growing